FX and treasury observatory
In-depth analysis for finance departments: currency risk, treasury management, export financing and governance. Written by practitioners, with no product to sell.
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47 analyses
Hedging the Turkish lira: when a forward costs over a third a year
Over five years, the Turkish lira lost more than 80% of its value against the euro, and hedging a lira receivable one year ahead now costs over a quarter of its amount. Why the forward is so expensive, why not hedging is not a saving, and the alternatives to a standard hedge.
Hedging the yen: a quarter of its value lost in five years, and record interventions
Since 2021, the yen has lost about a quarter of its value against the euro, and Japan has intervened several times to support it, with record amounts in 2026. What this means for an exporter to Japan, what a forward costs, and why the yen is prone to sudden moves.
Hedging the yuan: CNY, CNH, the daily fixing and what a forward costs
The yuan trades on two markets, under two codes: CNY in mainland China, CNH offshore. For a French company, it is almost always the latter that is used for hedging. How the Chinese central bank's fixing works, what a forward costs, and the dollar exposure that often hides behind a purchase in China.
Hedging the Swiss franc: the appreciating currency, and what it changes for importers and exporters
Over five years, the Swiss franc gained nearly 16% against the euro, and its rates are the lowest in Europe. As a result, hedging costs the importer and pays the exporter. What moves EUR/CHF, the lesson of 15 January 2015, what a forward costs and the pitfalls specific to the franc.
Hedging sterling: a currency that looks stable and isn't
Over five years, EUR/GBP ended almost exactly where it started. In between, it moved by nearly 10% in a few months. What moves sterling, the lesson of the 2016 referendum, what a forward costs today and how to hedge business in the UK.
Hedging the dollar: what moves EUR/USD, what a forward costs and the pitfalls to avoid
The dollar is on the other side of nearly nine FX trades in ten worldwide. For a French company, it is the most common exposure and the easiest to hedge. What moves EUR/USD, what a forward costs today, the actual range over five years and the pitfalls specific to the dollar.
LEI code: why your bank requires it before an FX hedge, and how to obtain and renew it
Before an option or a non-deliverable forward, your bank asks for an LEI code. What this identifier is, why European regulation requires it, when it is not needed, how to obtain it from INSEE in France — and why an LEI that has not been renewed can block your hedges.
Can an AI agent place your FX hedges? What to lock down first
AI agents can now read emails, call APIs and place orders. Technically, one could hedge your FX exposure. The four risks specific to an agent, what the company commits to with every trade, and the controls to put in place before entrusting it with anything.
Multi-currency cash forecasting: what machine learning really adds
Vendors promise "AI-driven" cash forecasts. The major forecasting competitions show where machine learning wins — many similar series, plenty of history — and where it loses. Applied to treasury: which flows benefit, which do not, and how to tell whether a tool beats a simple method.
ChatGPT does not know today's exchange rate: why AI gets rates, forward points and premiums wrong
Ask an assistant for the EUR/USD rate, six-month forward points or an option premium: it will answer, confidently. The number will often be wrong, and nothing will tell you so. Why, what a market number must carry to be usable, and where the assistant genuinely helps.
How banks set your FX price: algorithms, mark-up and different treatment between clients
Your FX price does not come from a market screen: it comes from a pricing engine that adds a mark-up, and that mark-up varies from one client to another. European regulatory data show a gap of more than ten times on the same contract. What the research says, what the market's code of conduct provides, and what brings your price down.
Reading a term sheet with AI: what the machine catches, what it misses
A machine reads a six-page term sheet in seconds. It gets the pair, amount and maturity right; it goes wrong on what makes the risk — barriers, leverage, schedules, cancelled legs. Five real errors, how ELEGG combines rules and a language model, and the six lines you should always check yourself.
Can AI predict EUR/USD? What forty years of research say
Some tools promise to forecast EUR/USD with artificial intelligence. Forty years of research say otherwise: beating the forecast "the rate will not move" is rare, fragile and limited to short horizons. What can genuinely be forecast is the size of moves — and that is what should drive a hedge.
The FX year-end file your statutory auditor expects
On foreign exchange, the statutory auditor checks that all derivatives exist, that they are properly valued, properly qualified and correctly described in the notes. A file prepared in the order the auditor works shortens the review. The documents to gather, why your fair value will never match the bank's, and how to make the file reproducible.
IFRS 9: documenting an FX hedging relationship, from designation to the equity reserve
Under IFRS, an FX derivative goes through profit at every reporting date — unless the company has designated and documented a hedging relationship from the start. IFRS 9's conditions, what the documentation must contain, effectiveness without a numerical threshold, and how the hedge reserve works.
Hedge accounting under French GAAP: ANC Regulation 2015-05 explained for a mid-sized company
Since 2017, the French chart of accounts has distinguished two kinds of derivatives: those that hedge, whose result follows the hedged item, and those that hedge nothing, whose unrealised loss is provided for. The documentation required, the treatment of forward points and premiums, and what happens to "optimised" structures that carry extra risk.
Year-end in foreign currencies: translation differences, FX loss provisions and the global currency position under French GAAP
At 31 December, every receivable and payable in foreign currency is remeasured at the closing rate. The differences go to the balance sheet, the unrealised loss is provided for, the unrealised gain waits — except for tax purposes, where everything counts. The French chart of accounts rule, a worked example, and the three cases where the provision is reduced.
The AI Act: what really changes for finance and treasury departments
The EU AI regulation already partly applies, and its timetable was pushed back in 2026. For a finance department using AI to read, forecast and write, the obligations are lighter than often claimed — with a few exceptions worth knowing. Status as of 15 October 2026.
10 AI prompts for treasurers: exposure, term sheets, committee — and the check to run every time
Ten copy-ready prompts for the treasury tasks where AI genuinely saves time, each with what to provide and the check you must not skip. The first two are here in full; the other eight are for subscribers.
International payment fraud in the age of deepfakes: the controls that still hold
A cloned voice, a doctored video call, a flawless email: AI has made payment fraud credible, and foreign-currency payments are the most exposed. The four scenarios to know, and the controls that do not depend on how good the imitation is.
AI and currency risk: what it does well, what it does badly, and where it becomes dangerous
AI reads a term sheet in seconds, sorts a thousand bank-statement lines and drafts a committee memo. It does not predict EUR/USD and does not know the price of your hedge. A guide to using it where it pays, without handing it what it cannot do.
Calculating a forward rate: the formula, a full worked example, and the mistake to avoid
A forward rate is not a forecast: it is anchored on spot and the interest-rate differential. The formula, applied step by step, what it does not tell you, and how to deduce what your bank is taking.
What exchange rate did your bank actually apply?
The rate actually applied is not always on the statement, and where it is, it is compared with nothing. How to reconstruct it after the fact, in five steps, and what to do with the result.
Reading an FX term sheet: the eight lines that set the price
A hedging proposal fits on one page and runs to about thirty lines. Eight of them set the price; the rest is legal scenery. How to spot them and what each one changes.
Pricing an FX option: how to check the premium you are charged
Six inputs go into an FX option premium. Five can be checked in minutes. The sixth explains almost all of the gap between the theoretical price and the price billed.
« Zero-cost » hedging: what a collar, a participating forward and a barrier really cost
Three structures presented as free, three different ways of hiding remuneration inside the guaranteed rate. How to compare them with each other and with the plain forward, which remains the yardstick.
Is your bank expensive on FX? The ten-minute test
A five-question test, written for an executive with neither the time nor the appetite for the technical detail. At the end, you know whether the subject deserves attention — and what it might be worth.
Multi-currency cash forecasting: building a reliable 13-week forecast
Published cash-forecasting methods assume a single-currency treasury. The moment a dollar account enters the perimeter, the forecast starts lying. How to build a 13-week forecast that holds up across currencies.
Currency risk for mid-market companies: the complete guide for a finance director
Identify your exposure, choose a hedge ratio, select the instruments, measure the real cost: the full method for steering currency risk without reading a trading-floor manual.
Treasury and FX governance: who decides what, and how to evidence it
The document your statutory auditor will eventually ask for, and that most mid-market companies do not have. The six sections of a financial risk policy, with the wording that stands up to an auditor.
Financing export working capital: factoring, receivables assignment and letters of credit compared on real cost
Headline rates say almost nothing about the final cost. A full breakdown of the four ways to finance export receivables, with the all-in calculation and the currency dimension comparisons leave out.
Working capital and exchange rates: why a strong dollar inflates your funding need
FX does not only hit the margin: it hits the cash tied up. Stock bought in dollars, receivables in foreign currency and supplier terms in euros form a scissor effect most dashboards never show.
Hedge ratio: what share of your exposure should you really hedge?
Hedging 100 % protects against one risk and creates another. A four-input method for setting a ratio you can defend to your managing director, plus a ready-made grid of ratios by horizon.
Investing corporate cash: the safety, yield and liquidity trade-off, net of tax
Comparisons of corporate cash investments reason in gross yield and ignore tax, real liquidity and currency. The full method for choosing, with the instrument grid and the questions to ask before signing.
Cash pooling: notional, physical or ZBA — which one for a multi-currency group
The three structures differ not only in their banking mechanics, but in their tax, legal and FX consequences. What each really changes when the accounts are not all in the same currency.
Budget rate: how to set it, and what to do the day it breaks
The budget rate is the most structuring FX commitment a company makes, and the one set with the least method. How to calibrate it, at what level to protect it, and what procedure to follow when the market goes through it.
Idle cash: what it costs, and the threshold at which to act
Leaving EUR 3 million in a non-interest-bearing account is not a neutral decision: it is a quantifiable annual cost, comparable to an operating expense. How to compute it, and where to set the safety pocket.
FX commission on international payments: what your bank really charges
Three billing layers stack up on a foreign-currency payment, and only one appears on the statement. How to isolate them, quantify them, and reduce the total to a percentage comparable across providers.
Foreign currency accounts: when to open a USD, GBP or CNH account
A currency account removes conversions, but creates an FX position that has to be managed. The four-question test that tells you whether it is your case, and the rules to set the day it opens.
Bank, broker or FX fintech: the comparison grid that actually matters
Published comparisons set headline tariff schedules against each other. That is not where the difference is made. The eight criteria that really determine what you will pay and what risk you will carry.
Interest schedules, value dates, turnover commission: decoding your bank statement of charges
The quarterly interest statement is the least read and most instructive banking document there is. How to break it down line by line, where the most frequent overcharges hide, and how to prepare a renegotiation backed by figures.
Hedging when you do not know your volumes: the layered method
The most common situation in a mid-market company is also the least covered: a real but non-contractual exposure. How to hedge an imperfect forecast without creating a speculative position.
Letters of credit and FX: the two risks you think are covered and are not
A confirmed letter of credit secures the payment. It secures neither the conversion rate nor the collection date — and it is precisely that pair that makes hedging a documentary transaction delicate.
Invoicing in euros or in the customer's currency: the trade-off nobody quantifies
Invoicing in euros transfers the risk to the customer — and part of your commercial margin with it. How to quantify both sides of the trade-off instead of settling it out of habit.
Choosing treasury software: the decision grid for an SME or mid-sized company
TMS comparisons list features. That is not what makes a project fail. The six questions that really determine whether the tool will still be used in eighteen months, and the breaking point on currencies.
Incoterms and treasury: what each three-letter code really costs in cash
Incoterms are explained everywhere in terms of logistics and risk transfer. Almost never in terms of the cash timing gap they create — which is nonetheless their most measurable effect on a finance department.
Treasury reporting to the executive committee: the seven indicators that matter
A twelve-page treasury report does not get read. Seven indicators, one page, and one presentation rule: every figure must be tied to a possible decision. The full template, including the currency section.
What you will not find elsewhere
- No financial product is distributed here: our analyses do not exist to sell you a hedge or an investment.
- Every figure is reproducible — calculation method spelled out, assumptions stated.
- The topics covered are the ones without a clear answer elsewhere: real bank margin, the effect of FX on working capital, budget rate, the full cost of export financing.